How to value your FD
10-05-18, 08:43 PM
#1476
Eats, Sleeps, Dreams Rotary
Full disclosure here. I go by AZ Rotorhead on BAT. I was a little surprised the CYM didn’t bring more today, but my suspicions are that the market softens between October and March as the country approaches Christmas, but more importantly, the Winter months. It would be interesting to see all seasonal sales prices on BAT to see if that suspicion has any merit. The other thing I didn’t understand today was the Sellers reference to BAT insisting on a fairly low reserve, yet the 9K mile red base went to nearly $50K but didn’t trip reserve. Did that seller pay a higher premium for the sky high reserve price?
i been on bat for awhile and noticed this while ago. These investor types are looking for the cleanest example. Not the most rare. Rarity doesn’t equal desirable. Supply isn’t the driver. It’s only a piece and as a stand-alone piece it’s completet meaningless.
Anyways you can click on people to see their activity. The people buying and selling expensive cars or those that have a huge collection of cars are having completely different conversations than people here do. It really is that different to me. It’s stark. Once theee cars truly hit the mainstream collector market, if they ever do, I think there will be an awakening for this community.
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10-05-18, 09:04 PM
#1477
Eats, Sleeps, Dreams Rotary
My 02cents on the market and the economy...
i have considerable professional experience in finance. And if I learned anything over 20 years it’s that everyone has an opinion is no one has a clue. It’s fun to discuss topics or debate them. But no one is able to consistently make forecasts that are right.
i have considerable professional experience in finance. And if I learned anything over 20 years it’s that everyone has an opinion is no one has a clue. It’s fun to discuss topics or debate them. But no one is able to consistently make forecasts that are right.
10-06-18, 03:14 AM
#1478
People need to get numbers from the government, BEA and BLS, and not from politically driven organizations, like the World Bank and Brookings. Graphs that show no differences in the economy (GDP) over the past, say, decade, do not reflect what has happened and are extremely misleading.
https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
You'll see the same numbers posted by the BEA as what is in the graph.
Regarding world economic growth, I don't think that is tracked by either the BEA or BLS, so I posted data from the Worlld Bank as it is used by most as the data source for global stats. If that is a problem, you can look at the IMF data as the historical numbers for GDP are the same and both sources list very similar projections for the remainder of this year:
https://www.imf.org/external/datamap...ADVEC/WEOWORLD
Using the IMF data (or any other data source that reports the actual numbers), those countries listed by you as PIGS actually have positive GDP growth, not flat to declining. Portugal is growing at 2.4%, Italy at 1.5%, Greece at 2.0%, and Spain at 2.8%. I would agree those increases are certainly not stellar.
Finally, regarding the Brookings Institute and the average GDP growth of 2.6% under Trump, the data source for the numbers is the Federal Reserve:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPC1
I think we would both agree that the FED is a reliable source.
Now let's return to FD values!
Last edited by David Hayes; 10-06-18 at 03:18 AM.
10-06-18, 09:46 AM
#1479
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good question about the reserve but I think these guys do this for living and know what they are doing. I think they get that a museum quality piece is that much more valuable than a driver. As a group we need to understand this better. It’s not about color. It’s not about trim. It’s about investment grade versus a driver. The cym was a driver while the vr is investment grade.
i been on bat for awhile and noticed this while ago. These investor types are looking for the cleanest example. Not the most rare. Rarity doesn’t equal desirable. Supply isn’t the driver. It’s only a piece and as a stand-alone piece it’s completet meaningless.
Anyways you can click on people to see their activity. The people buying and selling expensive cars or those that have a huge collection of cars are having completely different conversations than people here do. It really is that different to me. It’s stark. Once theee cars truly hit the mainstream collector market, if they ever do, I think there will be an awakening for this community.
This stuff isn't rocket science. When 25 year old plus cars are selling for 50k they are ALREADY mainstream
The FD is likely heading for the 100k mark and not many old cars make it to that level. I believe a nice SSM R2 with 3k miles would sell for 75k today.
Last edited by Fritz Flynn; 10-06-18 at 01:55 PM.
10-06-18, 07:40 PM
#1480
The Ancient
The numbers are the numbers, Gordon. They are facts. It's our interpretation of the numbers that become opinions. So, I am only offering the facts and not my opinion here as I am not trying to support any narrative. The source data for the quarterly US GDP data graph I posted is the BEA:
https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
You'll see the same numbers posted by the BEA as what is in the graph.
Regarding world economic growth, I don't think that is tracked by either the BEA or BLS, so I posted data from the Worlld Bank as it is used by most as the data source for global stats. If that is a problem, you can look at the IMF data as the historical numbers for GDP are the same and both sources list very similar projections for the remainder of this year:
https://www.imf.org/external/datamap...ADVEC/WEOWORLD
Using the IMF data (or any other data source that reports the actual numbers), those countries listed by you as PIGS actually have positive GDP growth, not flat to declining. Portugal is growing at 2.4%, Italy at 1.5%, Greece at 2.0%, and Spain at 2.8%. I would agree those increases are certainly not stellar.
Finally, regarding the Brookings Institute and the average GDP growth of 2.6% under Trump, the data source for the numbers is the Federal Reserve:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPC1
I think we would both agree that the FED is a reliable source.
Now let's return to FD values!
https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
You'll see the same numbers posted by the BEA as what is in the graph.
Regarding world economic growth, I don't think that is tracked by either the BEA or BLS, so I posted data from the Worlld Bank as it is used by most as the data source for global stats. If that is a problem, you can look at the IMF data as the historical numbers for GDP are the same and both sources list very similar projections for the remainder of this year:
https://www.imf.org/external/datamap...ADVEC/WEOWORLD
Using the IMF data (or any other data source that reports the actual numbers), those countries listed by you as PIGS actually have positive GDP growth, not flat to declining. Portugal is growing at 2.4%, Italy at 1.5%, Greece at 2.0%, and Spain at 2.8%. I would agree those increases are certainly not stellar.
Finally, regarding the Brookings Institute and the average GDP growth of 2.6% under Trump, the data source for the numbers is the Federal Reserve:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GDPC1
I think we would both agree that the FED is a reliable source.
Now let's return to FD values!
But, as you say, back to FD values.
10-06-18, 08:09 PM
#1481
Eats, Sleeps, Dreams Rotary
All of this material has been covered over and over. Mileage/how clean is everything but model, exterior color, interior color, year etc... also make a BIG difference.
This stuff isn't rocket science. When 25 year old plus cars are selling for 50k they are ALREADY mainstream
The FD is likely heading for the 100k mark and not many old cars make it to that level. I believe a nice SSM R2 with 3k miles would sell for 75k today.
Are you following those transactions? Not only will you see zero trend around trim in the clearing price but also in the winners comments. They don’t care.
10-06-18, 09:18 PM
#1482
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I'd have to agree with this statement. These cars were introduced over 25 years ago, and the highest price paid for an FD is ONE-THIRD of that paid for the highest selling MKIV. That gap might close some, but I have no doubt the MKIV will always fetch more than the FD. Sorry Fritz, maybe the RX-7 will catch the Supra sometime in the mid-23rd century 
?
?In the P car world a green or orange RS can be worth 50k more if the mileage is low LOL
https://bringatrailer.com/listing/1993-mazda-rx-7-36/
https://bringatrailer.com/listing/1994-mazda-rx-7-17/
10-07-18, 04:36 AM
#1483
I think that both of you are correct.
Where the majority of people care what color the car is but at the same time they don't care what trim it is. Because from what I see on BAT, mileage and color is what makes the most difference. Noting so far that the highest sellers have been touring cars but I think that's just a coincidence. Either that or sunroofed cars are what people really want
Where the majority of people care what color the car is but at the same time they don't care what trim it is. Because from what I see on BAT, mileage and color is what makes the most difference. Noting so far that the highest sellers have been touring cars but I think that's just a coincidence. Either that or sunroofed cars are what people really want
Last edited by Montego; 10-07-18 at 04:39 AM.
10-07-18, 08:49 AM
#1484
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I think that both of you are correct.
Where the majority of people care what color the car is but at the same time they don't care what trim it is. Because from what I see on BAT, mileage and color is what makes the most difference. Noting so far that the highest sellers have been touring cars but I think that's just a coincidence. Either that or sunroofed cars are what people really want
Where the majority of people care what color the car is but at the same time they don't care what trim it is. Because from what I see on BAT, mileage and color is what makes the most difference. Noting so far that the highest sellers have been touring cars but I think that's just a coincidence. Either that or sunroofed cars are what people really want
I agree that there are lots of buyers who will simply buy a low mileage/clean FD for one reason and that is to put one in their collection and flip when prices go higher and this is clear based upon the rapid rise in value. These buyers could care less about anything other than mileage. However while those buyers are bidding there are other buyers also looking at these cars which is why when we see a low mileage R2 listed if comparable to the 94 VR base w/9k miles (current leader at 51k) that just sold I think it will sell for at least 5k more.
So if apples to apples:
1st mileage (super low then of course the price will be super high despite anything else listed below)
2nd year (lots of changes from 93 to 94 and a few changes from 94 to 95)
3rd model (the only FD I'm going to pay A LOT for is a base or r model......period and I know others who feel the same way about touring/sunroof cars)
4th color (all great colors so not a huge deal with the FD other than CYM) That said I've had people pay 5k more simply because a car was white. White (keep in mind all white FDs are also 94 95 cars) is the new black
5th interior color (big with the FD because tan sucks and could easily over ride the exterior color for some people/like me hehe)
*2 through 5 are subjective could easily sway any buyer as much as 10k or it's all personal preference but make no mistake certain preferences are more popular than others which is where the value rises or falls*
*automatic cars will continue to retain much lower values but an auto FD with 3k miles could easily sell for 50k too you never know because as mentioned it's all about the mileage*
Of course everything but mileage can drift all over the place but in general those rules would apply and greatly effect the value of a low mileage FD.
10-07-18, 10:30 AM
#1485
Actually Fritz since the base model sold off line at $51k the touring model still holds the record at $51,450 (with the BAT fees included). Or does BAT still take a cut even though the cars don't sell at auction?
One thing I am very skeptical is the forum's preferences in where I dont believe it coincudes with the masses. And so far BAT auctions agree but I'll keep an open mind about that as only time will tell if regular folks (not forum due hards) care if a car has a bose system or not.
Edit- As you said trim is very subjective and my personal preferences do not align with the forum's (except for tan and 93 interiors). Because I absolutely have to have a sunroof, like the pleather over cloth, use the cruise control, and love the Bose System. No I'm not a touring model owner (I used to be) but I have owned my 94 pep for 20 years.
One thing I am very skeptical is the forum's preferences in where I dont believe it coincudes with the masses. And so far BAT auctions agree but I'll keep an open mind about that as only time will tell if regular folks (not forum due hards) care if a car has a bose system or not.
Edit- As you said trim is very subjective and my personal preferences do not align with the forum's (except for tan and 93 interiors). Because I absolutely have to have a sunroof, like the pleather over cloth, use the cruise control, and love the Bose System. No I'm not a touring model owner (I used to be) but I have owned my 94 pep for 20 years.
Last edited by Montego; 10-07-18 at 10:56 AM.
10-07-18, 10:53 AM
#1486
The '94 CW car with 12k miles finally sold.
https://www.ryanfriedmanmotorcars.co...urbo-c-376.htm
Anyone know what it went for? I know the asking price varied from $44k-$50k.
https://www.ryanfriedmanmotorcars.co...urbo-c-376.htm
Anyone know what it went for? I know the asking price varied from $44k-$50k.
10-07-18, 11:58 AM
#1488
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Actually Fritz since the base model sold off line at $51k the touring model still holds the record at $51,450 (with the BAT fees included). Or does BAT still take a cut even though the cars don't sell at auction?
One thing I am very skeptical is the forum's preferences in where I dont believe it coincudes with the masses. And so far BAT auctions agree but I'll keep an open mind about that as only time will tell if regular folks (not forum due hards) care if a car has a bose system or not.
Edit- As you said trim is very subjective and my personal preferences do not align with the forum's (except for tan and 93 interiors). Because I absolutely have to have a sunroof, like the pleather over cloth, use the cruise control, and love the Bose System. No I'm not a touring model owner (I used to be) but I have owned my 94 pep for 20 years.
One thing I am very skeptical is the forum's preferences in where I dont believe it coincudes with the masses. And so far BAT auctions agree but I'll keep an open mind about that as only time will tell if regular folks (not forum due hards) care if a car has a bose system or not.
Edit- As you said trim is very subjective and my personal preferences do not align with the forum's (except for tan and 93 interiors). Because I absolutely have to have a sunroof, like the pleather over cloth, use the cruise control, and love the Bose System. No I'm not a touring model owner (I used to be) but I have owned my 94 pep for 20 years.
I find more buyers currently are like you or like sunroofs and this includes forum members or anyone buying a new car today. FACT is though there are fewer hard top FD available and those that want one will pay more (supply and demand). In another 20 years I believe the hard tops will hold more value.
Last edited by Fritz Flynn; 10-07-18 at 12:02 PM.
10-07-18, 12:00 PM
#1489
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The '94 CW car with 12k miles finally sold.
https://www.ryanfriedmanmotorcars.co...urbo-c-376.htm
Anyone know what it went for? I know the asking price varied from $44k-$50k.
https://www.ryanfriedmanmotorcars.co...urbo-c-376.htm
Anyone know what it went for? I know the asking price varied from $44k-$50k.
Last edited by Fritz Flynn; 10-07-18 at 12:03 PM.
10-07-18, 07:19 PM
#1490
Eats, Sleeps, Dreams Rotary
FOR THIS CAR color( sunroof trim and etc) is eye of the beholder or is meaningless. I am sorry. And as more and more data comes in it will
continue to show that. It’s already pretty clear to me. The forum ( really just a handful of guys to be honest, fritz you are one) thinks otherwise and they are being proven wrong as we speak.
If we were talking Ms or porches I would agree with you. That’s a bit different for so many reasons. Main stream big dollar collectors been playing them for three decades. There are so many more around so scarcity of color combos and production numbers are a differentiator and could add value. It’s a more liquid market with cars trading daily. I mean I can go on forever. It’s like the NYSE compared to pink sheets.
Maybe be one day a cym cw will be worth a material amount more. But for now they just aren’t. Maybe there is a slight value gap but that difference is immaterial and will become unmeasurable on auction to auction basis bc of the noise that is inherit to auctions by definition, ie who shows up on any given day. On Monday a clear vr with 20k trades at $40k. Then on Friday virtually same car trades at $35k. Your color premium will get lost in there somewhere. And even after 50 trades which will take five years there won’t be a trend that clearly shows one color being more valuable than the other. Bottom line is there just isn’t enough trades. This is NOT a Porsche. 50 porsche trades happen In a month. That market is liquid with volume. Small valuation trends can be established. But not for the fd where it will take 5 years For fifty prime examples to trade. You guys aren’t understanding how liquidity impacts markets. Illiquid markets are noisy as F. It’s just how it is. As a result trends are tough to find. Various metrics get lost in the noise. Etc etc.
So in closing it’s not about this or that. Or your opinion about this car or mine. It’s really a debate about how markets function. And in that case my mind is closed. I know I am right. Sorry to be pompous.
continue to show that. It’s already pretty clear to me. The forum ( really just a handful of guys to be honest, fritz you are one) thinks otherwise and they are being proven wrong as we speak.
If we were talking Ms or porches I would agree with you. That’s a bit different for so many reasons. Main stream big dollar collectors been playing them for three decades. There are so many more around so scarcity of color combos and production numbers are a differentiator and could add value. It’s a more liquid market with cars trading daily. I mean I can go on forever. It’s like the NYSE compared to pink sheets.
Maybe be one day a cym cw will be worth a material amount more. But for now they just aren’t. Maybe there is a slight value gap but that difference is immaterial and will become unmeasurable on auction to auction basis bc of the noise that is inherit to auctions by definition, ie who shows up on any given day. On Monday a clear vr with 20k trades at $40k. Then on Friday virtually same car trades at $35k. Your color premium will get lost in there somewhere. And even after 50 trades which will take five years there won’t be a trend that clearly shows one color being more valuable than the other. Bottom line is there just isn’t enough trades. This is NOT a Porsche. 50 porsche trades happen In a month. That market is liquid with volume. Small valuation trends can be established. But not for the fd where it will take 5 years For fifty prime examples to trade. You guys aren’t understanding how liquidity impacts markets. Illiquid markets are noisy as F. It’s just how it is. As a result trends are tough to find. Various metrics get lost in the noise. Etc etc.
So in closing it’s not about this or that. Or your opinion about this car or mine. It’s really a debate about how markets function. And in that case my mind is closed. I know I am right. Sorry to be pompous.
Last edited by matty; 10-07-18 at 07:42 PM.
10-07-18, 07:31 PM
#1491
Eats, Sleeps, Dreams Rotary
having said that. I don’t think these cars will go for big bucks. If they were going to then the spread between these and the Supra wouldn’t be so sharp. Why does that exist and why would it change? What is the catalyst to close that spread? It won’t. These cars are perceived to be unreliable. Once u rebuild them their collect ability is in the garbage. And no one works on them. While I think these cars are one of the best cars to come out of Japan they won’t reach Main Street collectibility for those reasons. It’s going to be hard for these cars to keep up with inflation I think.
10-07-18, 07:33 PM
#1492
Eats, Sleeps, Dreams Rotary
Fritz what percentage of your trades are to drivers versus collectors. As I said earlier. Don’t only look at the clearing price. Look at the comments. Dude. No one is talking about sunroofs.
just rich.
Last edited by matty; 10-07-18 at 07:39 PM.
10-07-18, 08:13 PM
#1493
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FOR THIS CAR color( sunroof trim and etc) is eye of the beholder or is meaningless. I am sorry. And as more and more data comes in it will
continue to show that. It’s already pretty clear to me. The forum ( really just a handful of guys to be honest, fritz you are one) thinks otherwise and they are being proven wrong as we speak.
If we were talking Ms or porches I would agree with you. That’s a bit different for so many reasons. Main stream big dollar collectors been playing them for three decades. There are so many more around so scarcity of color combos and production numbers are a differentiator and could add value. It’s a more liquid market with cars trading daily. I mean I can go on forever. It’s like the NYSE compared to pink sheets.
Maybe be one day a cym cw will be worth a material amount more. But for now they just aren’t. Maybe there is a slight value gap but that difference is immaterial and will become unmeasurable on auction to auction basis bc of the noise that is inherit to auctions by definition, ie who shows up on any given day. On Monday a clear vr with 20k trades at $40k. Then on Friday virtually same car trades at $35k. Your color premium will get lost in there somewhere. And even after 50 trades which will take five years there won’t be a trend that clearly shows one color being more valuable than the other. Bottom line is there just isn’t enough trades. This is NOT a Porsche. 50 porsche trades happen In a month. That market is liquid with volume. Small valuation trends can be established. But not for the fd where it will take 5 years For fifty prime examples to trade. You guys aren’t understanding how liquidity impacts markets. Illiquid markets are noisy as F. It’s just how it is. As a result trends are tough to find. Various metrics get lost in the noise. Etc etc.
So in closing it’s not about this or that. Or your opinion about this car or mine. It’s really a debate about how markets function. And in that case my mind is closed. I know I am right. Sorry to be pompous.
continue to show that. It’s already pretty clear to me. The forum ( really just a handful of guys to be honest, fritz you are one) thinks otherwise and they are being proven wrong as we speak.
If we were talking Ms or porches I would agree with you. That’s a bit different for so many reasons. Main stream big dollar collectors been playing them for three decades. There are so many more around so scarcity of color combos and production numbers are a differentiator and could add value. It’s a more liquid market with cars trading daily. I mean I can go on forever. It’s like the NYSE compared to pink sheets.
Maybe be one day a cym cw will be worth a material amount more. But for now they just aren’t. Maybe there is a slight value gap but that difference is immaterial and will become unmeasurable on auction to auction basis bc of the noise that is inherit to auctions by definition, ie who shows up on any given day. On Monday a clear vr with 20k trades at $40k. Then on Friday virtually same car trades at $35k. Your color premium will get lost in there somewhere. And even after 50 trades which will take five years there won’t be a trend that clearly shows one color being more valuable than the other. Bottom line is there just isn’t enough trades. This is NOT a Porsche. 50 porsche trades happen In a month. That market is liquid with volume. Small valuation trends can be established. But not for the fd where it will take 5 years For fifty prime examples to trade. You guys aren’t understanding how liquidity impacts markets. Illiquid markets are noisy as F. It’s just how it is. As a result trends are tough to find. Various metrics get lost in the noise. Etc etc.
So in closing it’s not about this or that. Or your opinion about this car or mine. It’s really a debate about how markets function. And in that case my mind is closed. I know I am right. Sorry to be pompous.
Year, model, color, interior color, etc.... make a difference and the lower the mileage is on any given car the larger the price difference will be for any preference whether it be year, color or model. Of course the cars listed on BAT could bring any number of results because they are sold at different times, it's an auction (so the sale doesn't last long), presentation is HUGE, etc.... Today sunroofs are more desirable. We agree on the that. However 20 percent of the cars produced were hard tops (just a guess). I'd say 25 percent of the population wants a hard top and 75 a sunroof. In 10 years I think 50 percent will want a hard top blah blah blah. I'm guessing and I don't know anything for certain.
The easiest car for me to sell at this time is a white sunroof car. Hardest would be a 93 VR or MB touring with tan interior.
Last edited by Fritz Flynn; 10-07-18 at 10:12 PM.
10-07-18, 10:18 PM
#1495
10-07-18, 10:20 PM
#1496
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I think it will take about 10 years to pass the supra but it will pass it. Just too many available at this time.
10-08-18, 08:41 AM
#1498
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You sir are without question the best FD salesman I know
I also truly mean that above statement. I recall the 93 VR with approx 52k miles that you sold. If I ever desire to get top dollar I'll message you and you can keep 20 percent LOL
Congrats on a great sale especially a year ago
I also truly mean that above statement. I recall the 93 VR with approx 52k miles that you sold. If I ever desire to get top dollar I'll message you and you can keep 20 percent LOL
Congrats on a great sale especially a year ago