The Fed will raise rates this year at least another 100 bps. There are still not that many (much) in 2 year Floating Rate Notes. And, slowing inflation right now is vital and worth any hit they take from higher payouts on a small fraction of our debt. Admittedly, hiking the rates will m ake it VASTLY more expensive for the US to issue new debt. They probably will anyway, if they can.

And, as to differences between the BaT results and the rest of the action, its all going down for now. Especially nice cars will stay higher longer, but prices are going down.

 

 

Why do you think FD prices are going down? BAT is not the only place they are sold, but even on BAT, prices are holding. The reserve not met vs actually sold doesn't tell the whole story. We've just seen some of the highest prices. $78k for CYM, one bid to $57k and reserve not met, another bid to $57k and sold, and then on reserve not met at $36k for a car with mods, which is not the typical sweet spot for a BAT buyer, so understandable the demand fizzled out.

I agree there is risk that they will go down due to the economy, but I don't see any decline in price happening until people in the category of being able to afford disposable income on a $50k sports car start losing jobs. The car is still rare and nostalgia for 90's and 2000's japanese sports cars is strong. Supra and NSX pricing is still holding as well. And don't get me started on the integra price haha

 

People with cash that don't know what to do with it buy stupid stuff like art, watches and cars and they also sell stupid stuff to buy real stuff like real estate, stocks on sale, high rate bonds etc....

Again I won't be surprised if 997 GT3s are back below 100k in a year or two.

 

The higher they go the more people sell and someone has to buy that debt and if they don't then rates go out of control and the whole house of cards tumbles. I suspect they might get away with another point or two increase before something goes off the rails and they reverse.

I'll repeat I've never seen the world in this situation before and it will be fascinating to watch.

 

Check this out: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TLT?....tsrc=fin-srch

We are currently watching the biggest drop in the TLT in it's history. It's gone from 171 to 111 in 2 years. That's a 35 percent drop in bonds in two years, seriously scary stuff.

 

+1

I couldn't agree more and I'd love to hear you narrate 'the fall' with a bag of popcorn. It's going to be rough, good time to get your house in order.

 

Thanks for the replies. I snagged my RHD for a literal steal. Lucked out big so I am not necessarily in the market..

I am seeing a wide selection of FDs listed in the mid 20-30k and selling. Not talking trash cars. I was just wondering if there is still some weird internet hype thing going on. I understand BaT has become (or alway has) been for certain cars

Market is gonna be a fun watch 🍿

 

it will take much more than 3 weeks…after tax the very high earners may take home $10-15k including overtime per month.

Oil may be high but it’s all going into the shareholders pockets. Big oil are being SUPER stingy with raises. They would rather leave positions vacant and let the rest of us suck up the extra work than offer competitive salary to attract new workers.

Pay has been stagnant since 2019. I work for Exxon and even now they are still actively reducing headcount even further to increase profit.

It’s disgusting.

But it’s been the same theme since the 50’s. Profits increase but the worker doesn’t benefit. Especially now we are all saving/paying for our own retirement.

 

Really? Are you talking RHD cars? Pretty rare to see a solid LHD FD go under 30k these days.

 

No I am referring to US cars. Mentioned my FD to say I am not looking for a car.

And I am aware that listed prices are one thing, and actually selling them is another. Seems like plenty are indeed going for high amounts, but sometimes if comes across as internet hype.

I was asking more-so for feedback from people who knew or actually bought/sold recently. There were two in recent memory, one a TX car and one a CA car that were high 20k and were in very nice shape. One with mild mods, one very modified, but not poorly done. Clean title for one, salvage for the other.

I know of two rollers that went for under 7k each, but were completely stripped.

 

There is an internet hype/auction hype that takes place whether it be BaT or live auction like Mecum or BJ. The last 20 LHD FD auctions on BaT that sold averaged just over $50k not including fees. That's a decent mix of examples--low mileage, high mileage, mild mods, no mods etc..

My guess is the premium on the auction hype is probably 15-20% on average.

That said, I've seen recent local sales in upper $20s but needed work. Cleaner examples that required minimal work, cheapest I saw recently was $33k (higher mileage).

Hagerty values #3-good condition FD at $42k. Most ppl know what they have and depending on condition and their situation (need to sell or don't need to sell) will price it accordingly.

Back yard deals are still out there, just very rare.

 

Very few verified trades up here and some pretty high asking prices, even for RHD.

Two recent RHD transactions of cars with somewhat aged turbo upgrades and random other "in period" tuner cosmetic equipment, have traded in the C$30,000 range. Running, but new owners will likely re-modify to personal tastes.

 

Yeah, a completely stripped roller for under 7k is not the same thing as solid FDs going for under $30k. I'm sure there are a few that have, but it is uncommon. A stripped roller for $7k will take more than $30k to get back to a solid car, unless you already have all the parts hoarded and do the labor yourself.

 

/\ This. It took $30k+ on top of the $10k I spent for my running, driving, complete FD to make it what it is today. Oh, and that is 2016-2019 money. So, no on nice sub $30k cars, that ship has sailed.

 

Not saying they were the same. Well aware of the cost for rollers + parts, specifically know someone who is in it about 20K over the shell cost, not even close to road worthy. Also been playing this game with my FC, and that market hasn’t even been close to touching the FD, but still also a bit high.

Just stating that I have seen some go for less than whats been going around the net, BaT, etc. and figured id ask people who know or have bought/sold. 2022 alone has seemed to level out compared to the spike of the last few years.

 

I've been keeping an eye on used JDM cars for the last two years and have noticed many coming on the market in the last three months.

MK4 Supras = Three months ago there were two on Kijiji. Now there are 12.
NSX = There have only bee 1-2 on Ebay at any given time in the last two years. Now there are 17.
Celica GT4 = You'd be lucky to see one listed every 4-6 months. Now there are 4-5 on Kijiji.
MR2 = seeing lots listed below $20k CAD and not selling.
GTRs = I've seen several R33 GTR and R32 GTR listed for 6+ months and not selling despite big price drops.

It looks like all the rats are fleeing the sinking ship.

 

The recession has begun. I see it with my company and already see it in housing prices. I made an offer on another rental property on Saturday. They were asking $520k originally 45 days ago, lowered the price to $495k and I offered $450k and they accepted. This is in what was previously one of the tightest real estate markets in the country just 90 days ago. I am not even sure how I feel about the offer getting accepted. I am with Fritz believing its going to get really bad. 2007-2009 bad or worse even but I hope for everyone's sake I am wrong. There are some very telling signs in my industry that biggest retail corporations in our country are scaling back quickly. Operational costs have skyrocketed and I believe business owners are truly starting to feel the impact of drastically increased labor, logistics, T&E and product costs. Buckle up and hope for the best while preparing for the worst.

 

I agree. I see the car market shrinking soon. These hyper-inflated costs for most of these JDM cars is about to end. The dollar to yen is that best it has ever been and credit is going to tighten up. Imagine in the next 6-9 months these JDM cars will drop down to where they truly belong.

 

Hey, leave watches out of this!!!!! Ha ha. As long as you buy them at msrp then you are good. I never sell mine. I am waiting on the prices to come down on a 997 gt3 myself

 

Whoa..

 

The TMU might hurt it - though it is absurd that BAT lists it that way due to what looks like a simple decades-old clerical error.

I think it is clear at this point that the number of people waiting for a cheap 997 GT3 (including me) pretty much ensures that it is never going to happen (short of a jacked-up, salvage title, high-mile example).

Also mystified at the number of people that think $40k+ FDs are expensive or overpriced. A loaded V6 Camry is almost $40k (before tax) these days. Hell, you can pay $70k for a frikken Jeep Wrangler. The '90s are long gone.

 

Thought the same about the TMU issue.. be interesting to see how that plays out.

I just don't see FD pricing dropping, leveling off sure but dropping..nah. Demand appears only to be increasing and (obviously) out pacing supply exponentially. $40k is a good deal for a nice quality FD.

 

The biggest threat to the Old FD may be the New Supra. Given the number flying around in Vancouver, they must be bringing them in by the boatload.

We are an FD crazy town, but if you can't get one, it seems people are settling for the Supra.

 

The Supra is a less useful BMW, I don't get it. Just buy a slightly older BMW, from before they ruined the grill lol.

BMW S52 Z3M Coupes are similar to the FD, and now similarly priced as well