dang, that's in a stingy market too

 

Yup - solid price for a car with 89k miles.

Not everyone invested in Bitcoin!

 

wow.. if he gets it at that price, absolutely steal of a lifetime. Thanks for sharing

 

The next one on Bring-a-Trailer

 

A deal compared to the MB '94 that sold before it

 

We are debating whether that is a scam.

 

What makes you think it’s fake?

 

yeah..thats a good point. As the saying goes, if it's to good to be true....

 

You realize that is not a classified ad right? The post is by the person who found the car.

It is a car that someone found while they were doing unrelated maintenance work on somebody's house, and the photos of it in the post covered in dust are in the garage where it was found. It remains to be seen whether the poster will be able to secure it, but the thread is an interesting read, and it is not a "scam", whatever that means.

 

Yes. Perhaps Not so much a scam but thinking to good to be true or the whole story isn't being told. But hope I'm wrong, I'm rooting for the guy.

 

That's what we are debating.

 

Bring a Trailer update. Out of the last 41 auctions I have been watching that ended, 17 of them were Reserve Not Met. Anecdotally, I would say there is at least some cooling off in the market.

 

Is it a function of the reserves being set higher?

 

Yep, market is cooling big time.

Repossessed cars are at 2 million so far this year. Average per year is approx 2.2m. This is a major leading indicator for recession/depression in other words when folks get squeezed the car is the 1st thing to go.

I suspect we will see deals on old cars, even 911s.

 

Will be interesting for sure. Maybe all the predatory lending and 7-8 year car loans, with balances continuously rolled over in to new car loans are catching up to people as well.

Auto loan defaults have been hitting highs and increasing for years. This started happening years ago. Lots of articles like this. https://ilr.law.uiowa.edu/print/volu...e-of-covid-19/

 

We've all got a crystal ball to look at if we choose, look back to '07-'10 to see exactly what moves to make or not make. '22 is almost a carbon copy of '07, more inflation, higher fuel costs are a slight variable though. I'm looking forward to sniping some good deals on vehicles and equipment for my business in the next 4-5 years.

 

44k miles and reserve not met at $36k:

https://bringatrailer.com/listing/1994-mazda-rx-7-73/

Hard to infer much from this car, though. Canadian car (they generally sell for quite a discount on BAT, despite importation to US not necessarily being hard), respray a non stock colour, very dodgy chrome wheels, and a few mildly questionable cosmetic modifications.

 

No compression figures. Factor in the cost of rebuild.

 

Yep inflation is a MASSIVE variant though because it limits the fed soooo much! I'm hoping for a fed pivot and one last massive bubble to feed my own greed but I'm definitely hedging some because this is a trippy environment or not something I've seen before.

They can't raise rates because it squeezes the bonds and they can't print because it increases inflation further so they can't use either of their cough cough TOOLS, hehe.

This will be very interesting to watch.

 

What do you mean they can't raise rates? The .75% hike is the highest in 28 years. Thought that was a done deal... Generally speaking, mtg interest rates have gone from 3% to 6% in a few months, and I'm going to venture a guess, this is just the beginning.

 

What are you thoughts away from BaT? Local and actual sales..

I’ve seen some rollers go for 6k (Heavy damage)-15K (actual usable roller)

and seen some really nice, modded FD’s still going for low 20- low 30s.. many of which I would gladly take over some of the BaT auctions.. clean title, salvage title, original, it varies.

Some sales on the forums don’t talk about what they actually sold for after negotiation, etc. I am more curious for actual sale figures?

 

IMO, at the end of the day, no matter where you find it, I believe it's going to cost you $40k to get into a clean reliable FD. This includes clean complete interior and decent paint. Of course what work you can do yourself to get it there will impact the overall cost.

Solid roller with good interior $20k. Figure another $20k to get it reliable where u can hop in it and drive it without worry and it looks good doing it.

Or $40k for mid mileage (65k+ miles) with mild mods and good compression, solid interior.

Once you get to $30k and below, it will have significant modifications and/or wear and tear, odds are you'll be preparing for a build or maybe it needs paint and interior work. Or the mods done are not considered tasteful. Mods are subjective though.

I just don't see good solid FDs (meaning needs nothing other than servicing maintenance items) selling for under $30k anymore. Of course there are exceptions and variables that come into play.

 

So where will all the surplus savings go?

Pay down the mortgages to prior monthly payment levels?

Watch the home renovation market.

Sometimes there is a renovation boom following a home sales boom.

During Covid, perhaps people let their home upkeep slide.


The high oil price heydays certainly drove our tuner markets in the past, when one week's pay in the oilsands could cover a used RHD FD.

(Now it might take three weeks.)

 

I also think we haven't seen the price of a solid FD catch up with what it takes to turn a poor one into a solid one.

Used to be that you could find a deal on a roller or even a running but poor example. Through some money at it, and be ahead (especially if you can DIY). Now, parts are so expensive, or in some cases don't exist, being ahead financially after taking on a project is unlikely. I bet solid drivers will increase further until that balances out. e.g. a car with 100k-120k miles, repainted (good quality), maybe some minor past accident history, mechanically sound, going for $50-$60k.

 

Basically our gov is still easing with buying back bonds along with other central banks to prop up the debt market which is actually inflationary, they just can't stop trying to manipulate a broken system that they caused by manipulating it LOL.

I'm sure they'll raise another 1/2 point in July and the same thing will happen. It's unusual for bonds and stocks to get hurt at the same time. It's also unusual for the 2 year treasury to be close to or the same rate as the 10 year which would coincide with a recession. In other words we are in a recession and I think it will become a full blown depression. Again when you lose your job you sell your car 1st, then your house etc...etc...

The debt market is a complete mess all across the entire world. Again this is seriously going to be very interesting to watch.

BOTTOMLINE: I think something will break whether it's the stocks/big companies (which of course causes unemployment etc..etc...) or the debt market and the fed will reverse course or lower rates and continue stimulating (bailing us out of one problem after another with helicopter money).

PS The 10 year treasury yield went from like 3 to 3.5 in a week and then back down to 3.10 or so in a few days and that can only happen if big money/gov money is buying back the bonds etc.... No way am I buying a 10 year treasury at 3.1 when the 2 year is at 3.1 and we know the fed is still raising rates. I might actually start buying some 2 year notes because I think something is going to break before the end of the year I bought an I-bond for the 1st time this year (I'm getting old).