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Yeah the auto loan market and consumer behavior is crazy. 8 year auto loans haha, and the ability to roll the debt still owed on a trade in into the new loan.
Used to be a trade in helped cover a down payment, not add more debt to something someone already can't afford.
Adding negative equity to auto loans has been going on for quite some time. I had a buddy after high school who rolled negative equity on top of negative equity buying car after car he couldn't afford. This was 20 years ago.
There is always more to the story..... I need this economic run to continue for 5-6 more years to truly be set with the company I purchased earlier this year. However, there are several signs showing some bubbles are out there. Luckily the housing market regulations, as much as this administration disliked them, has stopped that bubble this time. I hope others continue to believe in this economic bliss and ignore the fact we have doubled our national debt in a decade with
no end in sight.
EXACTLY. Consumer confidence is super high, Big housing boom, interest rates are still low, but the government continues to pile on the national debt. There are telltale signs. I don't mean to derail this thread at all but I think the mild downturn of the rx7 market is not just due to the winter. I notice in my business a mild lack of growth this past year. I hope I'm wrong.
EXACTLY. Consumer confidence is super high, Big housing boom, interest rates are still low, but the government continues to pile on the national debt. There are telltale signs. I don't mean to derail this thread at all but I think the mild downturn of the rx7 market is not just due to the winter. I notice in my business a mild lack of growth this past year. I hope I'm wrong.
We had 7% growth this year after 5 years of 20+%. Talking to other manufacturers in our industry they were all between flat and up to 10% growth. This is the commercial and industrial construction industry. Some of the issue is lack of labor force causing contractors simply not being able to get the work performed. Most our contractors have a good log book so that is refreshing. This has been a great run but I need it to keep going.
Adding negative equity to auto loans has been going on for quite some time. I had a buddy after high school who rolled negative equity on top of negative equity buying car after car he couldn't afford. This was 20 years ago.
But 8 year auto loans and 15-20 year boat(small vessel) loans were not common like they are now. That’s been a last decade change.
True. I wasn't aware they had terms like that. I've heard of 84 month loans, but not 96. But hey, I guess they had to, how else are all these average joes driving around in $75k diesels?
When CNBC notes that we have the highest NUMBER of auto loans past 90 days since 2010, it is not exactly relevant and may not be saying anything at all. The question is not what the absolute number of loans over 90 days are, but what PERCENTAGE of the total outstanding loans those past due 90 days or more represent. Because there has been a dramatic recovery since 2010 -- the base year -- there are many, many more car loans. Don't have the stats handy, but you can bet that CNBC had those numbers and purposefully chose not to provide the more meaningful statistic.
Also, that article suggested some people might not be benefiting from the improved economy without saying why. The median family income has risen from $56,000 a year in 2016 to $63,000 a year in 2019 and the lower income classes showed the strongest percentage improvement. Both savings and spending are up. Stocks at record highs on all 3 exchanges. National debt has gone up by $2 Trillion since 2017, which is at the same pace as under Obama. The debt numbers need to be watched, but right now, the fact that the US economy is by far the best in the world has meant US bonds are selling extremely well. Our 10-Year interest rate of 1.88% is extremely low historically, but it is still about 1.5% higher than what bond yields are elsewhere in the developed world. Most European countries at paying zero interest or actually negative interest.
There are still people looking forward to a recession. You can always be concerned about recession. After recovery goes on for so long, you have to think there will eventually be some sort of correction. People have been worried about a recession since Trump was elected, which is odd, since the 8 years before Trump were essentially stagnant. People were predicting a recession would happen in 2017 and then 2018 and then 2019. There is not going to be a recession for several years due to the combination of higher employment, higher wages, strong consumer spending, consumer savings, and higher corporate profits, all helped over the next several years by the trade deals with Canada, Mexico, China and elsewhere.
Good starting price for a recent rebuild car with lowish driver miles. Probably need a buyer who knows what the mod list actually means. Seems like a solid setup.
When CNBC notes that we have the highest NUMBER of auto loans past 90 days since 2010, it is not exactly relevant and may not be saying anything at all. The question is not what the absolute number of loans over 90 days are, but what PERCENTAGE of the total outstanding loans those past due 90 days or more represent. Because there has been a dramatic recovery since 2010 -- the base year -- there are many, many more car loans. Don't have the stats handy, but you can bet that CNBC had those numbers and purposefully chose not to provide the more meaningful statistic.
Also, that article suggested some people might not be benefiting from the improved economy without saying why. The median family income has risen from $56,000 a year in 2016 to $63,000 a year in 2019 and the lower income classes showed the strongest percentage improvement. Both savings and spending are up. Stocks at record highs on all 3 exchanges. National debt has gone up by $2 Trillion since 2017, which is at the same pace as under Obama. The debt numbers need to be watched, but right now, the fact that the US economy is by far the best in the world has meant US bonds are selling extremely well. Our 10-Year interest rate of 1.88% is extremely low historically, but it is still about 1.5% higher than what bond yields are elsewhere in the developed world. Most European countries at paying zero interest or actually negative interest.
There are still people looking forward to a recession. You can always be concerned about recession. After recovery goes on for so long, you have to think there will eventually be some sort of correction. People have been worried about a recession since Trump was elected, which is odd, since the 8 years before Trump were essentially stagnant. People were predicting a recession would happen in 2017 and then 2018 and then 2019. There is not going to be a recession for several years due to the combination of higher employment, higher wages, strong consumer spending, consumer savings, and higher corporate profits, all helped over the next several years by the trade deals with Canada, Mexico, China and elsewhere.
YEP
That said we do have real problems with inflation (health care cost mainly). The current inflation #s are hidden and don't reflect what's really happening. Most american's are still living paycheck to paycheck. So we are always on the cusp of recession.
The current stock market is trading at record high levels but actually all things considered not necessarily over priced. However if growth slows even a little (most of the growth is influenced by gov spending because 50 percent of our people are dependent in some form on our govs spending) or interest rates go up then the wheels come off. Again not really healthy.
We may be the healthiest economy in the world but that's like saying Wendy's makes a better burger than McDs. In other words the world economy sucks (for all the same reasons our economy is suffering/governments forced to borrow to support their people) and the world economies influence our economy. This is the healthiest our economy has been in decades but it's still at risk because it's bolstered by; low taxes, debt, low interest rates, military spending, gov spending and unhealthy world economies.
Bottomline: It's easy for someone to predict a recession because we are ALWAYS on the brink, or our economy is anything but healthy/stable.
PS: The current election will have a huge impact on what happens as well. It's a crazy world and nothing is ever what it seems (the more powerful our gov and corps become the higher the level of corruption).
The current inflation #s are hidden and don't reflect what's really happening. Most american's are still living paycheck to paycheck. So we are always on the cusp of recession.
The percentage of Americans living paycheck to paycheck has been going down notably for some time and newer surveys put that percentage at about 37%. As the attached graph shows there has been a very steady decline since 2017. You have to remember that living paycheck to paycheck "lags" the actual increases in wages -- take home pay after taxes, let's say -- by a good bit.
While, as I said, after any prolonged period of growth the specter of recession grows, there were many foundational economic policies that made the American economy weaker over the past several decades. These changes snuck up on us. They were gradual. Over-regulation may be the singlemost important negative influence on our economy. Does anyone here actually believe the people in our Congress have the ability to determine what regulations will help and what regulations will hurt our economy? I hope no one thinks they can. Taxes have clearly been another drag on the economy. "Globalization" read as both shipping jobs overseas and bringing in uneducated migrants to take jobs away from natural-born citizens has been a major factor for maybe 50 years.
Since Trump was elected, the discussion of our economy has been so superficial and politically animated that its hard to see the foundational -- the fundamental -- changes that have been implemented and how they have solidified our economic growth. That can all change with another administration that favors social policy or climate policy over improving the average American workers lives. And that would increase my worry about recession. But right now, we are good for some time into the future.
The percentage of Americans living paycheck to paycheck has been going down notably for some time and newer surveys put that percentage at about 37%. As the attached graph shows there has been a very steady decline since 2017. You have to remember that living paycheck to paycheck "lags" the actual increases in wages -- take home pay after taxes, let's say -- by a good bit.
While, as I said, after any prolonged period of growth the specter of recession grows, there were many foundational economic policies that made the American economy weaker over the past several decades. These changes snuck up on us. They were gradual. Over-regulation may be the singlemost important negative influence on our economy. Does anyone here actually believe the people in our Congress have the ability to determine what regulations will help and what regulations will hurt our economy? I hope no one thinks they can. Taxes have clearly been another drag on the economy. "Globalization" read as both shipping jobs overseas and bringing in uneducated migrants to take jobs away from natural-born citizens has been a major factor for maybe 50 years.
Since Trump was elected, the discussion of our economy has been so superficial and politically animated that its hard to see the foundational -- the fundamental -- changes that have been implemented and how they have solidified our economic growth. That can all change with another administration that favors social policy or climate policy over improving the average American workers lives. And that would increase my worry about recession. But right now, we are good for some time into the future.
I agree. The current admin has greatly benefited the economy and this must continue. I'd like to see military spending at around 250b vs 750b, but that will never happen because our economy can't handle the truth hehe.
YES..........we/the economy is doing fantastic but it would be complete bedlam without all the gov support.
As long as people and govs can pay their debt we'll keep on swimming
PS debt jan 1st 2018 was 20t today it's 23t. NOT GOOD!
PS debt jan 1st 2018 was 20t today it's 23t. NOT GOOD!
I don't think most people have any idea how big these numbers are.
Scale check: 1 second is 1 second. A million seconds is about 11 and a half days. A billion seconds is about 31 and a half years. And 23 trillion seconds is a little more than 700,000 years.
The percentage of Americans living paycheck to paycheck has been going down notably for some time and newer surveys put that percentage at about 37%. As the attached graph shows there has been a very steady decline since 2017. You have to remember that living paycheck to paycheck "lags" the actual increases in wages -- take home pay after taxes, let's say -- by a good bit.
While, as I said, after any prolonged period of growth the specter of recession grows, there were many foundational economic policies that made the American economy weaker over the past several decades. These changes snuck up on us. They were gradual. Over-regulation may be the singlemost important negative influence on our economy. Does anyone here actually believe the people in our Congress have the ability to determine what regulations will help and what regulations will hurt our economy? I hope no one thinks they can. Taxes have clearly been another drag on the economy. "Globalization" read as both shipping jobs overseas and bringing in uneducated migrants to take jobs away from natural-born citizens has been a major factor for maybe 50 years.
Since Trump was elected, the discussion of our economy has been so superficial and politically animated that its hard to see the foundational -- the fundamental -- changes that have been implemented and how they have solidified our economic growth. That can all change with another administration that favors social policy or climate policy over improving the average American workers lives. And that would increase my worry about recession. But right now, we are good for some time into the future.
Dude, trumps administration didn't do any of those "fundamental and foundational changes". It takes years to change an economy. Trumps administration has put kids in cages and watched them die. Given away protected resources to their buddies (look at EPA leadership turnover and scandals),
Regarding over regulation, do you not remember that it was the predatory actions of massive banks/corporations that took advantage of millions of people that caused the last collapse? Or what about when London was painted black from coal? Regulation fixed that. Now I agree it can easily go too far, and I agree that people in power now are not acting for the greater good in the long term. Just like natural gas fracking, crooked law makers opened the doors for oil companies, but now many people can't drink water and lands are polluted. Regulation can be good or bad. You can't say it's the single most negative influence over our economy. The influence are the people and lobbyists designing the regulations. They do not care about building a long term benefit for the common people.
That is a very nice car. Probably 40k, maybe more to the right person. Been watching that one on ebay for a while. Looks like a good, safe, no surprises car if you're in the market for a garage queen.
Dude, trumps administration didn't do any of those "fundamental and foundational changes".
What Trump did that I think were fundamental changes was severe de-regulation, which has made it far easier for new business startups and on-going capital investment. He stopped the taxation of corporations bringing profits back to the United States, which resulted in $1 Trillion in capital coming back into our economy. He lowered corporate taxes, which increased business profits and investments and hiring. He has kept interest rates low. And, he has used a stick and a carrot to get more businesses to invest in growth in the US. The whole made in America push.
Some may not think these are fundamental changes. Some may think the positive economic results do not outweigh what they see as potentially bad side effects. Whatever these changes represent, the economy has finally recovered and the future is looking pretty bright. That's good for our hobby and FD prices.
If all that money came back into the country, why did debt increase? How long will that $1 trillion you speak of actually last. What about all the corporations going elsewhere (ford, and manufacturers of many kinds).
Again, this administration has allowed racism to thrive and kids to die in cages. Are you really minimizing this to a "side effect"? Nothing with any long term benefit has happened.
I'd say 40k max value. However it's also a VR R1 and they aren't making anymore of them. Can't go wrong at 45 or even 50k if it's the car you really want and it's in exceptional condition.
The longer you wait the more expensive the nice cars will become.
Dude, trumps administration didn't do any of those "fundamental and foundational changes". It takes years to change an economy. Trumps administration has put kids in cages and watched them die. Given away protected resources to their buddies (look at EPA leadership turnover and scandals),
Regarding over regulation, do you not remember that it was the predatory actions of massive banks/corporations that took advantage of millions of people that caused the last collapse? Or what about when London was painted black from coal? Regulation fixed that. Now I agree it can easily go too far, and I agree that people in power now are not acting for the greater good in the long term. Just like natural gas fracking, crooked law makers opened the doors for oil companies, but now many people can't drink water and lands are polluted. Regulation can be good or bad. You can't say it's the single most negative influence over our economy. The influence are the people and lobbyists designing the regulations. They do not care about building a long term benefit for the common people.
You've been brainwashed.
Just to clarify your point -- the guy who was pulling in $40K/yr who signed a mortgage on a house he had no business buying (i.e. 10 times has annual income) bears what responsibility according to you?
A very long time ago the news media may have been more objective, but the older I get the more I wonder if it ever was actually objective. It is certainly true today that anyone who wants to have any idea what world they live in needs to read and listen to a number of sources representing the different biases being promoted. For instance, most economists who are Democrats hold by some form of Keynesian economic theory, which essentially says that significant government intervention in the economy, such as the 2009 stimulus, is vital to avoiding recession, which is somewhat to be expected since Keynes was trying to figure out what caused the 1929 depression and how to avoid it happening again. Think Paul Krugman and Robert Reich. Most economists who are Republicans hold by Classical Economics, which says the market place naturally adjusts to optimal balance and thinks the government should not intervene. Think Arthur Laffer and Alan Greenspan. The easiest way for people to get both sides is to at least read RealClearPolitics.com. They present both sides of every topic.
So, as regards today's economy and the chances of recession, many Democrat economists have been saying the economy is heading towards a recession, because the current administration has seriously de-regulated the economy -- Trump eliminated or suspended nearly 1,500 of the record 3,700 Obama-era regulations -- and has been trying to get the government out of the economy as much as possible. (Many believe some Democrat economists have been saying we are heading toward a recession to create uncertainty and that uncertainty might slow growth of even lead to a recession, which they would then use to advance Democrats into positions of power.) Republican economists are saying the economy has been improving dramatically precisely because the government is getting out of the economy. It is important to read both sides and then observe what is happening factually and by factually, I mean employment, wages, wage growth, corporate profits, stock and bond prices, and GDP. Look at it all and determine what you think is going on and who you think is describing what is happening better. I will tell you that I do not think the elected officials or bureaucrats should ever be allowed to decide anything in regard to the economy. The vast majority of them are incredibly stupid. (My favorite for many years has been Hank Johnson. I absolutely love his questioning of the Admiral of the Pacific Fleet about whether the island of Guam is likely to tip over because of the buildings the Navy has built on the island, but there is no shortage of similar stories about so many Congressmen and women.)
As I have been saying, the economy is not headed toward a recession. Not that things could not change, but right now there are just no signs of it. For example, noting that there are more auto loans 90 days past due is not a sign that a recession is coming. It does represent a slight uptick in the percentage of auto loans past due, but the fact that there has been a huge surge in automobile sales and attendant loans since 2017 means a) that people had the ability and desire to buy many more cars and b) that the automakers profits and employment went up greatly. On the whole far more beneficial than the worry about auto loan defaults having any impact on the economy.
The surge in FD prices has perhaps coincidentally occurred during the current economic boom. FD prices will continue increasing for several years to come as a result of what I believe is a durable bull market and growing economy.
Why even waste your breath trying to be rational with someone psychologically delusional enough to assert that kids were put in cages to watch die?
I stated that kids were separated from parents and put in cages and several have died. That is true.
Ignore it all you want. It still happened and it could be avoided.
Anyone see that video from of trump from 6 or 7 years ago on FOX news rambling about how Obama would go to war with Iran just to be re-elected. Surprise, look what's happening this week.
Anyone see all the videos from the early 2010's of trump criticizing Obama's time spent golfing. Guess who has more than doubled that amount of time golfing in a shorter time span (there are online trackers).
01-02-20, 07:20 PM
