smnc

I came across this:
http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/Index.html
*Warning - Long Read*

I dunno, maybe I'm just nuts and/or gullible, but it kinda makes sense to me.
I'm kinda hoping it's just me, cause I'm a bit freaked out.

I just haven't punched a lot of holes in the ideas on that page yet. A couple small ones maybe, but nothing substantial...

twinturbofc

I think your nuts for reading that whole artical, I personally think that if they can think that way now; then when the time comes there will already be some sort of replacements in effect, It's in human nature to **** everything we touch all to hell and then sit around scratching our heads until we cook something up to fix it, Besides it would be nice to breath in some air for a change. Good article though I just wouldn't look at it as a bible, just a fair stated opinion on a posible future at hand. He he better build a bomb shelter and pack away preservatives.

smnc

I actually speed-read through most of it, only slowing down in key area. Try reading the area on replacements:
http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/...html#anchor_83

twinturbofc

Yes sir read it, made it almost thru the whole thing before I had to go running for some visine to rehydrate my eyeballs, There already is alternative to deisel and bio-deisel ( witch they used as a big one for agricultrual demand ) known as canola oil witch is made from vegatables, I can't predict the future but if I beleived the stuff i've read with all the nasty predictions that made sense, I'd be locked up in an asylum. It is however a very good and disturbing article and I love how they advertise those guides off to the right lol.

dufourmike

iTrader: (1)

god damn it makes sence to me too
we're are so doomed

smnc

Well, Mazda does have those hydrogen powered rotories in the pipeline...

And I was planning on going self-sufficient for power and water when I build a house in the next 10 years or so....

And that was BEFORE the article...

ChristopherL

It's a load of crap. Written, directed and distributed by the global left-wing nutbar brigade.

smnc

Hey, I'm looking for seious discussion on this, so if you want to refute it, please do so.

ChristopherL

OK, I will refute it.

There's no question that we should all be interested in conservation. I will make that clear. Oil is a non-renewable resource, we owe future generations a chance to use some too.

However, far from being in a near-catastrophic state when it comes to oil, the world is literally swimming in the stuff. Much of it - like the deposits in Alberta - are in sand. Very difficult and expensive to extract. So not much has. Now with oil at near $70 barrel price levels, it becomes more economically viable. And there is more oil in the tarsands than in all of the middle east. Let me say that again - there is more oil in the tarsands than in all of the middle east. And more oil is discovered every day.

You have to read this stuff with more than a grain of salt. Those who write such crap ALWAYS have an axe to grind. And there is no shortage of gullable citizens eager to lap it up.

smnc

I actually was fairly skeptical when I started reading.

Aparently you didn't get to the second page...

1.) Not all Left win Looneys
http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/...html#anchor_72

2.) The Oil Sands/Oil Shale
http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/...html#anchor_77

3.) Finding More Oil
http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/...html#anchor_75

And since the author doesn't offer any miracle solutions, or blame any one group, it seems unlikely he's trying to "gind an axe".
I supose he could just be trying to get rich, but at $15 a book, especially when there's already so much info on the webpage... I don't see it.

smnc

You're right. There is TONS of the stuff left. According to the Peak Oil Theory, we haven't even hit the halfway point yet... but that isn't the problem.
According to Peak Oil, once we DO hit the halfway point, things go south in a hurry.

Terrh

iTrader: (7)

we have ethanol (corn gas!) and biodiesel (bean diesel).

we'll be fine. forever.
synthetic fossil fuels are the way of the future.

TalkSick

http://www.toxic.modheads.net/module...=article&sid=3


why waste ours first?

Terrh

iTrader: (7)

I just read it.
the whole ******* thing. both pages. and some of the yahoo! groups.

wow.

maybe we are fucked? it's kinda scary to think that it'll cost about $3000 to fill the tank on my rx7 before long.

I actually think that gwb and the americans might save our asses though!

and that /really/ scares me!

smnc

Nope...
http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/...html#anchor_92

smnc

Yeah... not me... I was planning on going self sufficient (except for meat) before reading the article.

Hydrogen powered RX, turbines and solar cells... gardens and a DEEP well.

smnc

That article is an incorrect, narrow view...

http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/...html#anchor_77

Terrh

iTrader: (7)

how do you eat in the winter though?
and the other 80% of the year that your graden doesn't produce food?

a deep well is a good plan

we used to live in a house with well water, we don't any more though

smnc

Well, as long as civilization holds out, I can go to the store
But if doomsday comes, frozen and preserved veggies...

I just gotta figure out meat...

My dad has a shallow well, my in-laws, deep.

Deeps don't run dry easy, and and they'e cleaner...

Terrh

iTrader: (7)

what happens when you run out of veggies?

and freezer?

I don't care how expensive gas gets, ($500 a liter), I'm not going to sell my 10AE

I may never get to drive it but oh well

smnc

I'm with ya...

Hunting, fishing...

Terrh

iTrader: (7)

hmmm
I think I am going to build a house
that is insulated VERY well
and has its own electricy generation capabilities
and a forest on property (I live in the country so I can do that!)
and a medium sized greenhouse
and a barn! for storing stuff.

smnc

Whanrow

Does the world economy run on oil - yes.

Is the economy screwed when it runs out - as things are now, yes.

Do we/will we have to make some changes - yes.

But we need to remember a few details.

My father is a management consultant, lives in Edmonton, and has worked closely with a few oil companies. He and I have had the same discussions as the article many times, and he just laughs at me. He claims Alberta alone has like 200 yrs of oil, and that doesn't count the natural gas, just its more expensive to extract.

Siberia is an untapped reserve that is presently uneconomical to get to, but is expected to have more reserves than Alberta and the Middle East combined.

Will gas continue to go up in price - yes.

Will it drive the price of everything else up - yes.

Eventually it will be economical for the oil companys to chase the more remote oil around the globe.

One paragraph in the article really got me - here it is:

"Once they do begin aggressively pursuing these alternatives, there will be a 25-to-50 year lag time between the initial heavy-duty research into these alternatives and their wide-scale industrial implementation."

That's a complete crock IMO.

Look at the new tv's - in like 3 yrs the price has dropped by 2/3 or more. Think of computers - in 1990 I was on the leading edge of the curve with 386/16 with a 20 meg hard drive, 4 megs of ram, and a 512k video card. I remember in 1987 I was working in the President's Office of our corporation (one of the largest in Canada), when the assistant got one of the first pcs's.

The point I'm making is that once a technology develops to a certain point, it advances exponentially, price drops, and availability expands. Sooner or later this will HAVE to happen with alternative energies.

Something we really need to do is realize how spoiled we are. We live in a throw away society. You don't try and fix the toaster, you throw it out and buy a new one. I look at the new houses that are built in Ottawa. They are almost always well over 2000 sq. ft. Fact is WE DON'T NEED TO LIVE AT THIS LEVEL.
I grew up in a 1000 sq. ft. house and thought nothing of it. Half the damn world doesn't have enough to eat, and we need a bigger house.

Until society stops buying in to our present philosophy, we're eventually screwed. Personally, I reject all that. I fix (or try to) virtually everything and anything that breaks. I finally broke down and bought a dvd player because I practically had no choice. I fight tooth and nail against all of it. People look at you funny and call you cheap. They just don't get it. Our present lifestyle just isn't sustainable for ever. That doesn't mean the world is going to end, but we as a society have to wake up and smell the (Tim's ) coffee.

Living in the area that had the most ice during the ice storm (129mm), and doing without the basics of life for some time was stressfull as hell, but also woke me up. I commute in a Civic, and almost never drive tha gas guzzlers listed in my signature - in fact two of them are in the Auto Trader. I live on 25 acres in a passive solar home and use 1 tank of oil per winter, and heat with wood with a catalytic high efficiency wood stove. This is recognized to be carbon and greenhouse gas neutral. I'm going to make more adjustments in the future too.

I just hope other people start to wake up and change their ways before its too late.

There Spenser, how's that for a rant! (you did mention you wanted legitimate discussion...)


Rob

smnc

Well Written!
I do very much appreciate your thoughts...

Now to pick them apart, one at a time


Alberta does have a lot of oil, but remeber, peak oil theory doen't say we have to run out, just get to the halfway point.

Furthermore most of Alberta's remaining oil is in the Oil Sands. See the relevant section:
http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net....html#anchor_77

Siberia is NOT untapped. Russia has been pumping oil fom there since the 70's. While it's true that Siberia does have lots of oil left, there is no hard evidence to support the wild predictions of "more oil than the Alberta and the Middle East". And even if it were true, with China and Russia becoming more modern industrialized societies, the BEST we could hope for from Sibera is to DELAY peak oil for a few years.

WHOA! Hold on!
Firstly, you're comparing apples to oranges!
The article is talking about the devlopment and global deployment of industrial technologies that have only just been touched upon.
You're talking about home electronics.

But even with easy to mass-produce and easily distributed electronic devices, lets look at some facts and history.

Firstly, LCD and Plasma screens have been around since the 80's! That's 20 years to get to the point we're at today. And they're still prohibitivly expensive for most of the population.
AND there's still major flaws (such as the short lifespan of Plasma).
DLP technology was invented in the early 90's. That's almost 15 years of development, and the technology is still in it's infancy.
Less than 15% of the currently installed base of home TV's are LCD's, Plasmas, or DLP's

And as for computer development, there hasn't been a REVOLUTIONARY development since the advent of optical drives, and that technology was developed in the 80's. Everything since then has been EVOLUTIONARY. There's really nothing too amazing about refining existing technoogy and manufacturing techniques.
And still, almsot a third of American, and over 2/3rds of worldwide households don't own a home PC.

Hell, over a quarter of the world's population don't even own a TV, and they've been around since the 50's

And lets not forget that the development of all the aforementioned devices is oil powered.


A much better example is somthing like the piston engine. Steam driven piston engines have been around since the late 1800's, and internal combustion since the tun of the century.
But average people owning a car didn't happen until what... the 50's? That's OVER 50 YEARS! And even then they were horribly ineffecient. It took another 20 years of development to get to the "modern" internal comustion engine. That's 70+ years to develop and distribute. And STILL a good number of the world's population doesn't drive or own a car.

Even if you were to argue modern technology could cut the development time down to half that, 35 years still puts it solidly in the 25-50 year range the article mentions.

Yes! Thank you! I agree whole-heartedly on this point. That's one of the reasons I drive a 20 year old car. I'd rather fix it then buy a new one (plus the RX-7 is amazing, but that's another story).

I don't use paper napkins at home. I use cloth. I don't use paper towels for most messes, I use rags or chamois.
I have a re-usable dust-mop, not a swiffer.
I don't vaccum often, I prefer a broom or carpet sweeper (unless it's really dirty).

My Microwave is 19 years old, most of my furniture is at least that old too!

When I upgrade my PC I keep the old components to re-use. I have 5 hard drives in the computer I'm using rignt now. I'm using my old stuff to build my 2 year old a first computer.
My laptop is 12 years old and still does what I need. MS Office, the internet and a couple classic games.

While I admit I do like to shop and do own a lot of modern things, I like to have the best I can, and to me, "best" does not always mean new.

I did buy a DVD player years ago, but for a couple good reasons:
1.) I like the quality! Sue me, I'm selfish
2.) Many of my VHS tapes were very worn and not in such good shape. The idea of a technology like optical disc, where the media lasts petty much forever, very much appeals to me. I like the fact that I will own my Starwars box set FOREVER and it will never die. Plus my old VHS "unmolested" copies are very valuble to me...

But although I do like my comforts, I try to not be a drain on this world. Hence my long term plans for green energy in my life.

I do drive my RX, and she is a gas guzzler. I do feel bad about it. but that's my one serious vice. I will not give up my car. But I do plan to convert to hydrogen as soon as I can

My '84 rabit beater and the wife's '97 protoge are both VERY efficent tho.

I recycle what I can, compost what I can't and only toss about one bag of garbage a week. Unfortunatly, where I live right now kind of limits the heating options, but that will be addressed eventually as well.

I look forward to your rebuttal!