I don't believe that we will hit peak oil for a long time.

 

Based on....?

 

My turn

By the way, don't misunderstand what I write, typeing isn't the same as talking...


Yeah I did read that too. I can only go by what my Dad says, and basically he claims all the written stuff is a pile of hooey. There's more there than they let on, with the expectation of finding HUGE more fields of tarsands. Problem is, its more expensive to get out than present prices will tolerate.


True. But most of that is west of the Urals, and the expectation is that the really desolate areas east of the Urals is where the big finds are just waiting to be economically feasible.

Don't forget India too. I know when I went to buy a trailer hitch for the Explorer, they told me they went up a lot because China was driving the steel price up so much. This is definitely a concern, even disallowing their affect on the air. I'm not so much arguing the "PEAK" theory, as disputing the definite doom and gloom that is painted.

You're absolutely right. The point I was trying to make (which I clearly didn't get across), was that once technology gets to a certain level, it develops and evolves faster than ever from that point onwards. I'm confident the same will happen to alternative energy and fuels such as fuels cells. A bet at some point you will be able to fill your car from you garden hose and it will extract the hydrogen from the water. Maybe not in my lifetime, and certainly not if the oil companies have any say in the matter. Why do you think they want to use fuels such as methanol (which we would still have to buy at the pump)

Not arguement to any of what you said after that, but see paragraph above about what I was trying to get across.


Yup. Think fuel cells, wind power, solar power etc. When there's enough value and pressure put on, I bet this evolves too. What scares me is when they develop antimatter reactors. One Chernobyl alone could wipe out half the planet.

Please see my original note - aka SPOILED (we are). We love our luxuries.

True, doesn't mean they won't find other ways. Think Star Trek. What's one of the things that make humans unique? (besides our curiosity), thats our ingenuity.

True. You should see an aircraft engine. Almost unchanged since the 30's. I know a little something about this as I have an 1800 ft grass airstip on my property. The internal comustion engine is a dinosaur even in its present format.

See SPOILED. Funny point though. I had a built up 1971 Torino around 1978. It got 25 mpg on the highway, and about 18 in the city when I was easy on it. There are many cars now that get worse mileage than that, and weigh a lot less, and are way more aerodynamic. So I'm not sure about how much efficiency has been REALLY been gained. It's just now there are ALSO a lot of small cars that get good mileage, which we didn't have before. I think you're too young, but I remember well when Japanese cars came to our market. They were considered a joke, and were of terrible quality. They improved their economical product and grabbed that market share from the "big 4" (at that time), and look where it has taken us.

True. Again the point I was trying to make is just how fast things now evolve. Compare the evolution time of the automobile to that of the computer. Newer technologies now take 1/10 of the time they once did.

Must have missed something since you're back. Thought the RX was a write off...

HaHa. Mines 21. Just replaced 2 couches that were 1963 and 1978.

I'm using an AMD 300. My oldest is a AMD 486 DX-4-100 and newest a Barton 3000. I have 5 in total, and have every part I've ever bought.

I cut out the rest of your comments. The thing is (and I really don't think people realize it) is how much THEY manipulate us. This is real bone of contention for me. If DVD and CD never came along, we would be happy with our vhs. We are being convinced we NEED all these things. Its very easy to buy in. Its what most of us do. For example, I just bought some of the new FRS radios. Top of the line Motorolas. That's even though I have older, less powerfull ones that work fine. I got sucked into it. Then they phase out the older technology, so we HAVE to buy the new stuff until the next "improvement" comes along. That's not to say the newer technolgy isn't better. They just convince us we NEED it, and for those of us who resist, they then FORCE you to buy in. The above and the "throw away society" bit get me so riled and I can't even put it in writing.

Well you do better than most, and much better than many from the big cities!

Something I didn't mention in my first "book", is that I also believe sooner or later we will have more wars as a result of oil. There's no question the need for it drives the world. Until that pradigm changes, that need will run the world. And the oil companies are so powerfull, the won't give up that control readlily. Imagine if you were told you were no longer a Tim's manager, but a paperboy. Bet that would go over well! Just imagine how much they want to hang on the their power!

I also believe there is another FUNDEMENTAL change that needs to be made in the entire world. I'm not confident it will ever come to pass especially after seeing some of the stuff that has gone on in New Orleans. We are completely self centred and think the world rotates around us. I was brought up to "don't touch what doesn't belong to you" and "always consider others before yourself", along with many other basic rules. Society no longer works this way. If that doesn't change, we're screwed IMO. I could write a book on my feelings on this topic. e.g. on saturday, the neighbours kid at the marina put his hands on my dusty RX and ran them one length of the hood to the other. I just about strangled him. The parents did nothing. Perfect example is look at the drivers. Did you know that in any 4 lane rd, you're supposed to stay in the right lane just like a highway unless you're about to turn left just ahead? What a joke that law is. Watch the way people drive. The guy who pushes his way through traffic then cuts you off just to get 2 cars ahead...I'll tell you anybody who tries to do this to me, I'll hit before I'll let them in. Again, they think the world is there to cater to THEIR wants and needs. These are only small examples. Really LOOK around you, and you see hundres of examples a day.THIS HAS TO CHANGE. With the comming future, if people continue like this, half the world will turn into New Orleans when oil supplies get in desperate demand.

Better get to bed, gotta get up at 5:30 for work.

In closing - remember the saying "if you're not part of the solution, you're part of the problem"? One hell of a lot more of us need to be part of the solution to the vicious circle out society is in.

Rob

 

Round 3!
I can't really dispute what your dad says, without knowing his source of information. I do know that the oil sands are HUGELY impractical as a resource, no matter what the price.

I also think it's hugely unlikely that they will get enough oil out of Siberia, fast enough, to make up for the shortfalls that will happen as we hit peak oil.

Look at the recent hurricanes in the south. Even with only a VERY small percentage of the worlds oil rigs offline for a few days, the price of oil shot up by as much as 100%. What do you think will happen if we hit as little as a permanent 5% loss in oil production?

I think it's hard to argue the "doom and gloom" once you realize how much oil is integrated into every part of our society...

I did get your point. My point is that the technologies you used are all small scale technolgies and they've still taken 20+ years of development. The current green techs, such as sola and wind are still in their infancy, and somthing akin to the old vacum tube computers of the 60's and early 70's.
Could they eventually be developed to the point where they are practical for large scale mass-production? Of course. Will that happen until it's too late? Probably.

I f you read the numbers on what kind of advances would be required, it's simply mindboggling how much power we derive from oil, and how little from other sources.
http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/...html#anchor_83

I'm not saying it's impossible to use alternate sources of engergy, just highly improbible that technology will advance enough in time to make in viable.

Hehe, I'm not even going to respond to any references to ST... lol...

True, but don't forget advances such as Turboprop and jet-turbine engines.

Engine efficiency has gone up, but it has to be balanced with emission controls and the recent surge in demand for large cars and SUVs.
Yes small cas will get treat mileage, but it's amazign how much power emissons consideations suck from modern engines.
I'm only 26 so yeah, Japanese cars were alread here when I was little (my mom had a Prelude and later an '84 GSL, and my dad had a Civic)

It is
I'm building up a new one for the spring... Main area of upgrade: Suspension/traction

Love my old microwave. BIG and works great...

Lol! My wife makes me throw stuff away occasionally. I'm running an AMD TB 2600+ right now, and I only have that because my 1800+ fried in a power surge. My oldest now is my old P166. My wife made me toss the 486 stuff. I do still have the 80meg hard drives I had on my 386 tho. And my laptop is a P150, although I am planning on upgrading it in the next 6 months to somthing like a PIII 600 or so...

I agree entirely, except that I never would have been happy with VHS or audio tape. I used to complain about how easily they were destroyed all the time. But I upgraded much later than a lot of people. I waited for prices to come down a lot. As much as I wanted to upgrade, I didn't NEED to upgrade immediately...

My inspiration is David Suzuki. He lives in T.O. and only does two small bags a week. I occasionally have weeks with more garbage, usually after a big "house junk" cleanup... the downside of being a pack-rat...

The US is actively pursuing this agenda...
http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/...tml#anchor_100

Wow! You and I could be twins! I feel EXACTLY the same. My mother raised me with the same values as you.
We had some punk teenager from the next block over riding his little "go-kart motorcycle" (I don't know how else to describe the stupid little things) around the neighboorhood. It's REALLY loud. He must have gone down my street a half a dozen times.
And I won't add to your driving rant 'cause it REALLY pisses me off, other than to say I neve let people like that in either. I had one guy who got MAD that I wouldn't let him in and started SWEARING at me... he tries to cheat and get ahead, and gets mad at me that I won't let him have his way... lol

I guess I'm just more pessismistic than you.
I fully expect a lot of the world to fall apart when the oil crisis strikes... especially the US.

Agree with you completely, and I wish the world worked like that... but it's not going to happen. I live my life by one motto more than any other.
"Hope for the Best. Plan for the Worst"

 

Ok, round 4. Although I'm going to try and type less. I'm on dialup (26,400), and I'm using up a lot of hours!

He and I traded emails today, he got quick a kick out of reading our discussion and he phoned me tonight. He had several interesting points. e.g. "Remember this peak oil thing is a THEORY. It sounds completely plausible, therfore more believable. As my Dad was saying, without having run out of oil in the past, these predictions are only guesses. We don't know this will be the course of events."

Ever seen accounting annual reports? You know how you can make the numbers look however you want them to? This thing is the same thing. You string together a bunch of things to make it mold to your point of view. This may or may not be the case here, but should be considered.

Here is a link my Dad sent me on the oilsands. Make sure to follow the link at the bottom of the page that says something like "to learn more..."

http://www.energy.gov.ab.ca/89.asp

Another thing we talked about was exploration. There is mention in the article how much exploration (or discovery of new oil) has reduced. As was explained to me, this is simply because there was already enough to meet the need, therfor they weren't about to wate billions prowling around looking for more yet. Also, apparently Indonesia, South America, and the Canadian East Coast are largely unexplored and each are expected to return large amounts of oil.

Maybe, but who knows. When humans want something bad enough, and the moneys right, we usually find a way.

That was the shutdown of the REFINERIES that caused the price jump. There aren't enough of them, and as my Dad was explaining tonight nobody (especially environmentalists) want one in their back yard.

No arguement on that. Its just more a matter of how fast we wakt up and find other ways of doing things. Again, I think it will involve fundamental change in the way we live and think as much as anything else.

Boy, I think you're already completely convinced and I'm wasting my fingertips! I belive there are too many variables involved to accurately predict.

I read it. But as mentioned above, we need to get squeezed hard enough to make the demand to find other ways of doing things.

Glass is half empty for you I guess. Strange for me to argue the opposite as I'm usually considered to be a pessimist!

[QUOTE] Hehe, I'm not even going to respond to any references to ST... lol...[QUOTE]
Hey, the stories may be sci-fi, but the concepts are based in some level of truth. Humans always come ahead due to their inventiveness, and ingenuity. (I'm actually a Babylon 5 fan myself. It strikes me as a more plausible future i.e. no shields, transporters, etc)


Which are more advanced yes, but HIDEOUSLY hard on fuel.

I gotta say I'm not really convinced it has. See my other note about my old Torino. I also had a built 63 Malibu SS (and MANY other hopped up cars)that got better mileage by far than either my Explorer or pick up.

I used to believe that too, but am no longer convinced. My 1.6L Honda puts out 105hp and gets almost 50mpg on the highway - and its a damn automatic. I used to rally race a couple of Pinto's (and no comments, I owned many of them and loved them all). They were all stock, 2.0 and 2.3 L and about 60 hp, and got no more than 35 mpg with no pollution equipment (circa 1973-75).


I'm 44, although don't look it or act it. Had my first car bought and paid for when I was 15, have had something over 30 cars, 4 motorcycles, 4 boats, and 2 farm tractors! Driven well over 1/2 million MILES (not km).


I'm lucky in that respect. My wife lets me keep whatever I want. The main reason is that she has seen hundreds of times where I pull out some kind of crap and am able to fix something just because I pack ratted!

I read it. No surprise to me. Just wait thill they try and grab the oilsands here!

Boy I can think of a few people I would like to see that comment - see above about pessimistic!

Maybe. Depends when we wake up. Personally, I think climate change and air pollution will get us first.

On an RX7 NOTE:
My backup lights have become fickle since I drive the car so little. (84 gsl-se) Seems anything with an electrical contact screws up on these cars. Where the hell is the sender? (yeah, I'm not totally stupid, I know it is in the tranny) I want to see if I can get at it to clean it.

Damn combo switch for the highbeams is the same. Gotta pull the wheel and try cleaning it.

Later
Rob

p.s. Forgot to mention - apparently the oilsands were economical to extract @ $13 a barrel. Now its up to about $19 a barrel.