turb0x2

iTrader: (71)

i think ultimately this data is giving us a fair/high estimate...my personal guess is there are slightly under 8000 fd's that actually run or the owners have intentions of having them back on the road

USCmatt

Seeing as there are more registered than people would have expected, that county by county report would have been nice. We can save that one for the next go around.

ehos

Good job to everyone who donated!

Subtract one FD from California, and add it to Canada

sevensix

iTrader: (1)

anyone else interested in finding out how many registered and non-registered fd's and shells are represented on the boards... i am.

moconnor

iTrader: (14)

I get the impression that a lot of people were expecting far lower numbers (I was) but rationalizing them lower seems pointless.

Where did you get this 8000 number?

It costs money to register a car ($150 or per year for me in CA, for example) and the registration expires in a year or two. In many states, a car has to be inspected and/or smogged before it can be registered (another $50-$100).

Why would close to 2000 people per year register their car if they had no intention of getting their car back on the road. (And all of these people would have to come from states that did not require either a smog or safety inspection before registration.)

These numbers are as close to golden as we are going to get.

yuichiror

iTrader: (1)

I think that's a good idea. That'll give an idea of how many FD owners are here compared to how many are registered. In my area, I've only met one or two FD owners that aren't on the board.

Narfle

iTrader: (16)

1 of 417 registered 95's woohoo!

Awesome job, Matt. Thankyou for your help, and congratulations on your success.

XSTransAm

i mean the number is going to be lower than that number for the simple fact that that information is 6 months old. you can subtract 14 from cali in just the last week.

but yeah i agree, it is as close to golden as we will probably ever get, and plenty accurate for what any of us can use the number for.

neit_jnf

iTrader: (17)

I wonder how many in Puerto Rico.... I've seen like 5, I wish it was included in the list!

dhahlen

iTrader: (5)

CAn't wait to move back to arizona... they dont have **** there.. haha.

dhahlen

iTrader: (5)

Ok where is that one guy from Wyoming... I know he's here somewhere.. SHOW YOURSELF! lol

prrex4ever

iTrader: (3)

Great! Thanks for the effort in getting this information. Wow less than 10,000 in all of the USA. Yes they are getting pretty rare.

dubulup

don't be hating...the cluster, ABS pump, A/C, elbow and LIM are nicer too

dhahlen

iTrader: (5)

Hrmm... aside from the cluster.. I either 1.) Don't use them 2.) Don't have them stock or 3.) I'm just hating.

Montego

iTrader: (1)

To put it lightly, that shop fire is the worst FD massacre we have ever seen. But other than that freak occurence the numbers would not be much different.

Original production numbers:
ENTIRE 3rd GENERATION TOTAL -----------------------> 13,879

as of 10/1/2005

9,796


that's 4083 FD's that are of of comission (we assume) since 1996. I doubt 6 months would make any significant difference in total numbers.

yuichiror

iTrader: (1)

True but as time goes on, I would think that the number of FD's out of commission would accelerate. With all these young drivers, no offense, and if the value of our cars remain stable, I would think we'd see a significant number gone in the next years ten years. Of course there's alot of variables that need to be taken in consideration before we seriously debate on future numbers.

Well we've lost almost a third of the original production number in 14 years. Considering it was almost a 4 year run, how is that compared to other cars?

sevensix

iTrader: (1)

i believe the cluster in '95 is the same as the '94 cluster. u're thinking of 93s again lol

same goes with the elbow. that was changed in '94 as well.

A/C isn't necessarily nicer.

and i have no idea about the abs and lim.. minor details

'95s do have the flat paint in the engine compartment tho, altho i fail to see the benefit of that, since it was probably a cost cutting measure.

lets hope the rate of decline slows down. maybe people will take better care of their fds now

moconnor

iTrader: (14)

The only study I could find using Google suggests that the FD is above average (see Figure 7.1-1):

http://www.arb.ca.gov/msei/on-road/d...recast_VMT.pdf

For most cars, the number remaining after 13 years seems to be somewhere between 45 and 60%. 68% of 1993 FDs are still around (9976 produced, 6772 left).

Not surprsing if you consider that most cars average 12k miles per year so most 13-year-old cars would have 150K+ miles on them. I would guess that 1993s have an average of about half this.

rotarypower101

iTrader: (1)

Wondering if someone does some data analysis, if they would do a population VS numbers per state?


This was an issue from the original thread, and it would be interesting to see the reality of this hypothesis.

I can only imagine average annual income will play a part into it as well, but it would be interesting to see what the major factors are leading to “FD density” hey that might be a new term.

I also think this “young drivers” idea theory just went out the window. 10 years with a 30% mortality rate doesn’t sound that bad a increase of 3% a year, if I were to guess I would say this is right on par or better. I guess more accurately it would be a decay of 3.42% y=13879(.9657)^x

But we have to also remember this car isn’t just left in the junkyard if there is something slightly wrong with it, they are revived, not left to rot because of a newer model, or outdated looks

moconnor

iTrader: (14)

A single year's registration data can not be used to prove or disprove the 'young driver' theory because they tell us nothing about the shape of the attrition curve. 3% is an average over the entire period - it could easily have been 1% in earlier years and closer to 5% now.

Actually, 77% of 1994s remain, so if anything the young driver theory is supported by the data, albeit weakly. We would need a year-by-year breakdown to answer that question with more precision.

yuichiror

iTrader: (1)

The young driver theory can only be applied to the past few years. I believe until recently our cars have been out of reach for them. Plus their popularity/exposure to the younger generations have been limited. The 'net, the F&F movies, and "tuner craze" have given FD's alot more exposure since 2001( the year the movie came out).

rotarypower101

iTrader: (1)

Actually that is a interesting EQ, in 20 years at present rates there should be less than 5000.

How does age factor into an automotive unit numbers decaying function?




moconnor, your probably right, but when you hear how much people place blame on decreasing numbers squarely on young drivers, I cant help but think this shows the “thought of low numbers” as a bit exaggerated, and perhaps not as bad as it has been hyped to be.

rotarypower101

iTrader: (1)

Well that’s 5 out of the 12 years or so, seem like I have been hearing that for quite some time now about the youth getting there hands on FDs and destroying them.

Though I am sure there is a sharp blip these last few years, I am just saying it is not as bad as I think it is hyped to be.

FJDRX7

iTrader: (32)

good info, i will go wax the fd now and take it for a ride "show off"

veilsidei

you should ad oine more to nevada minesnot registered right now because it is getting new seals. and the license and registration were stolen. but the car runs now. and will be registered within a week.