25 year moratorium approaching...how many JDM FDs do you think we'll start seeing?
09-30-17, 07:08 AM
#1
Constant threat
Thread Starter
25 year moratorium approaching...how many JDM FDs do you think we'll start seeing?
In a few years we'll see JDM cars being legally import-able...it'll be weird to see 1996 - 2000 model cars being discussed more in the forum...
Last edited by bajaman; 09-30-17 at 07:48 AM.
10-01-17, 06:17 AM
#3
I really don't think you will see that many. The Japanese system is like cash for clunkers on steroids, most of them were destroyed before they became export eligible and their price shot up. Massive taxes, very difficult and expensive bi-annual inspections, expensive parking spaces, fuel cost usually 400% more than the US, and you get cash to boot if you junk your 7 with the engine intact. The way I see it, with low '91-'98 resale prices, expensive maintenance and new vehicle junking/recycling laws from 2002-2013 wiped a MINIMUM of 60% of the FD's on the road in Japan out. Its not like in the states where there is lots of space and you can just stick it in the country somewhere.
Stopped about 10 months ago, but have spent the past 3 years in one capacity or another buying up and hoarding every singe 91-93 FD on the Japanese market and we are barely talking about 50 cars... Sure I did not get them all most for good reason but I would say well over half. sure the new market price will bring some out of the woodwork but don't think there is an endless supply.
Not only that but now the Japanese are realizing that they are losing all of the cars that make life worth living over here and are fighting back at the auction house.
Those of you looking for a massive influx of FD's and FD parts are going to be disappointed IMO, but if you already own one your resale value should be doing quite nicely.
https://page.auctions.yahoo.co.jp/jp/auction/p572590223
Stopped about 10 months ago, but have spent the past 3 years in one capacity or another buying up and hoarding every singe 91-93 FD on the Japanese market and we are barely talking about 50 cars... Sure I did not get them all most for good reason but I would say well over half. sure the new market price will bring some out of the woodwork but don't think there is an endless supply.
Not only that but now the Japanese are realizing that they are losing all of the cars that make life worth living over here and are fighting back at the auction house.
Those of you looking for a massive influx of FD's and FD parts are going to be disappointed IMO, but if you already own one your resale value should be doing quite nicely.
https://page.auctions.yahoo.co.jp/jp/auction/p572590223
Last edited by laujesse; 10-01-17 at 08:49 AM.
10-01-17, 03:03 PM
#4
Stop the insanity!
Very good intel. Good to have a clearer lens. Given the above I was surprised to see so many FD still coming to auction (say 25 a week?) . My thinking was it was pretty tough to have anything more than 8 years kicking around. There must have been quite a few dedicated owners, or the rules were made a little easier at some time.
I suspect, and there is some evidence of this, that cars newer than 25 years are making their way over as parts cars. This, plus some of the factors you mention, plus the fact that other parts of the world (Canada/Australia) can get their hands on the cars after 15 years, the actual supply to the US of registerable cars could be limited.
Canada is, and will be, a source to the US, and as more trading relationships get built, there may be a steady flow through Canada to the US - as we buy up model years several years ahead of eligibility to the US.
There is a trend, here, for folk to spend $10~15,000 on their RHD, so those that come available, over time, might not be that cheap.
A guess, based on sketchy information at best, is that there could be 400 rhd and 500 lhd in Canada.
I suspect, and there is some evidence of this, that cars newer than 25 years are making their way over as parts cars. This, plus some of the factors you mention, plus the fact that other parts of the world (Canada/Australia) can get their hands on the cars after 15 years, the actual supply to the US of registerable cars could be limited.
Canada is, and will be, a source to the US, and as more trading relationships get built, there may be a steady flow through Canada to the US - as we buy up model years several years ahead of eligibility to the US.
There is a trend, here, for folk to spend $10~15,000 on their RHD, so those that come available, over time, might not be that cheap.
A guess, based on sketchy information at best, is that there could be 400 rhd and 500 lhd in Canada.
Last edited by Redbul; 10-01-17 at 03:06 PM.
10-01-17, 09:13 PM
#6
I junked mine on my way out of Japan in '11. It was a 95 and I paid 3k for it at the time. And it was arguably in better shape than the usdm I paid 14 for last year 🙄. Either way I don't expect many imports, and wouldn't be interested in buying one anyway. Had I the opportunity to bring mine in, that would be another story
10-02-17, 12:13 AM
#7
Very good intel. Good to have a clearer lens. Given the above I was surprised to see so many FD still coming to auction (say 25 a week?) . My thinking was it was pretty tough to have anything more than 8 years kicking around. There must have been quite a few dedicated owners, or the rules were made a little easier at some time.
Just an educated opinion, but I sincerely doubt it, most of that 22,000 will not be export eligible for quite some time, it won't be long and the US buyer at current valuation trends will be largely priced out. Most of you will be in look but can't touch mode.
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10-02-17, 09:29 AM
#8
You also have to factor in that places like Europe, the UK, Australia, etc. don't have to wait at all to import. They have been importing ever since they stopped officially selling the FD in those countries in 95-96. There are lots going to auction each week and prices in the UK have jumped a lot in the past 2-3 years. A nice early spec car that was running with no rust used to be about £5,000 but now those are commanding £10,000-15,000 and the 99-specs used to be about +/-£10,000 but in good shape are commanding £15,000-25,000. And the late spec RZ and Spirit R are always over £20,000.
Unfortunately, a lot on the auction block now are R rated cars which means they have been crashed before and nearly all of them are clocked and don't have as little mileage on the chassis as advertised. I swear it seems like every car between 40,000-50,000km no matter how old or what spec it is. Several are also parts cars now which means some items may not match the VIN or the front clip might not match the back, etc.
Nothing necessarily wrong with those factors depending on what you want but you have to buy with your eyes open when importing and have reserve funds in case the car isn't exactly what you thought it would be.
Unfortunately, a lot on the auction block now are R rated cars which means they have been crashed before and nearly all of them are clocked and don't have as little mileage on the chassis as advertised. I swear it seems like every car between 40,000-50,000km no matter how old or what spec it is. Several are also parts cars now which means some items may not match the VIN or the front clip might not match the back, etc.
Nothing necessarily wrong with those factors depending on what you want but you have to buy with your eyes open when importing and have reserve funds in case the car isn't exactly what you thought it would be.
Last edited by cib24; 10-02-17 at 09:33 AM.
10-11-17, 11:15 AM
#10
On topic, importing a RHD car from Japan isn't all that cheap. First, you're paying the $5-7k for the car at auction, then you're paying tax, transportation fees, storage fees until the car can be transported (Around $2k total). Then you're paying shipping fees, which can cost around $2-5k. THEN you're paying customs fees, which will add another $1500-3k. Ultimately, you're still going to be paying around $15k, and that's assuming your importer doesn't want to make any money on the whole transaction, and it also assumes s/he has the infrastructure set up to arrange all of this. You can get better rates by dealing in bulk obviously, and that's something that has been happening, some dealers are buying up FD's, supra's, etc and storing them until they're legal to import. You can already see prices starting to rise in Japan for the past year.
I looked into this before I left a few months ago; it isn't a realistic option for most people. And it's a ridiculous option for the People's Republic of California (since it would cost an additional $10k+ in various "safety standards").
10-11-17, 11:24 AM
#11
Dedicated in the U.K.
You also have to factor in that places like Europe, the UK, Australia, etc. don't have to wait at all to import. They have been importing ever since they stopped officially selling the FD in those countries in 95-96. There are lots going to auction each week and prices in the UK have jumped a lot in the past 2-3 years. A nice early spec car that was running with no rust used to be about £5,000 but now those are commanding £10,000-15,000 and the 99-specs used to be about +/-£10,000 but in good shape are commanding £15,000-25,000. And the late spec RZ and Spirit R are always over £20,000.
Unfortunately, a lot on the auction block now are R rated cars which means they have been crashed before and nearly all of them are clocked and don't have as little mileage on the chassis as advertised. I swear it seems like every car between 40,000-50,000km no matter how old or what spec it is. Several are also parts cars now which means some items may not match the VIN or the front clip might not match the back, etc.
Nothing necessarily wrong with those factors depending on what you want but you have to buy with your eyes open when importing and have reserve funds in case the car isn't exactly what you thought it would be.
Unfortunately, a lot on the auction block now are R rated cars which means they have been crashed before and nearly all of them are clocked and don't have as little mileage on the chassis as advertised. I swear it seems like every car between 40,000-50,000km no matter how old or what spec it is. Several are also parts cars now which means some items may not match the VIN or the front clip might not match the back, etc.
Nothing necessarily wrong with those factors depending on what you want but you have to buy with your eyes open when importing and have reserve funds in case the car isn't exactly what you thought it would be.
The mention that auction cars in Japan may have had their odometers reset, or be "bitsa" cars, was a bit of a revelation. A strong selling point has been that JDM are typically low mileage cars. This revelation may explain some of the discrepancy we see on cars here (Vancouver) which seem more worn out than the mileage would suggest. On the other hand, we see very few JDM with interiors nearly as decrepit as high mileage USDM. The condition of the bushings, if original, may be a good indicator of the true mileage.
Last edited by Redbul; 10-11-17 at 11:39 AM.
10-11-17, 11:50 AM
#12
Although the U.K. clearly has a strong classic car scene, I'd think it would take strong dedication to be a FD owner in the U.K., given the limited original supply, and, I presume, difficulty, perceived or real, in sourcing replacement parts and maintenance service. I was surprised to see so many mint condition RX8 on the road (usually at gas stations!) indicating, to me, that there is still a strong rotary following.
The mention that auction cars in Japan may have had their odometers reset, or be "bitsa" cars, was a bit of a revelation. A strong selling point has been that JDM are typically low mileage cars. This revelation may explain some of the discrepancy we see on cars here (Vancouver) which seem more worn out than the mileage would suggest. On the other hand, we see very few JDM with interiors nearly as decrepit as high mileage USDM. The condition of the bushings, if original, may be a good indicator of the true mileage.
The mention that auction cars in Japan may have had their odometers reset, or be "bitsa" cars, was a bit of a revelation. A strong selling point has been that JDM are typically low mileage cars. This revelation may explain some of the discrepancy we see on cars here (Vancouver) which seem more worn out than the mileage would suggest. On the other hand, we see very few JDM with interiors nearly as decrepit as high mileage USDM. The condition of the bushings, if original, may be a good indicator of the true mileage.
It's like buying a JDM engine from Japan like a Honda B18C5. Do people really think all of these used motors only have 50,000-70,000km on them given how damn old they are? How many times have people bought that kind of stuff and been surprised it burns oil like crazy and needs a top end rebuild?
In my case, my car has about 87-88k miles equivalent on it and I know it's a legitimate reading because I was very fortunate to have the full Mazda Japanese service log book and a few Japanese smog test certificates included with the car so you can see the mileage tick up over time. What I don't know is if it is the original engine or was rebuilt but given the mileage on the chassis and the high 7's compression figures it's likely not an original motor but that doesn't bother me.
The alternative route is to buy directly from a dealership in Japan and most import companies can sort that out for you as well by having their guys test drive the car, inspect it more closely at the dealership, get it compression tested, etc. but this type of service costs more as they have to travel further distances and spend a lot more time finding the car for you.
10-11-17, 11:59 AM
#13
Get what you pay for.
The domestic (Japan) dealer prices I see posted seem unrealistically high, but maybe that is the price to be able to have higher confidence in what you are getting.
I have seen service stickers on door jams that list the mileage at the time of last oil change. That may be a little help.
I have seen service stickers on door jams that list the mileage at the time of last oil change. That may be a little help.
10-11-17, 04:16 PM
#14
On topic, importing a RHD car from Japan isn't all that cheap. First, you're paying the $5-7k for the car at auction, then you're paying tax, transportation fees, storage fees until the car can be transported (Around $2k total). Then you're paying shipping fees, which can cost around $2-5k. THEN you're paying customs fees, which will add another $1500-3k. Ultimately, you're still going to be paying around $15k, and that's assuming your importer doesn't want to make any money on the whole transaction, and it also assumes s/he has the infrastructure set up to arrange all of this. You can get better rates by dealing in bulk obviously, and that's something that has been happening, some dealers are buying up FD's, supra's, etc and storing them until they're legal to import. You can already see prices starting to rise in Japan for the past year.
On a 7k car thats just $175.
As for taxes at auction...you don't pay taxes at auction. The vehicle is being exported from the country. Sales tax does not apply.
Now some exporters are lying and charging for the tax to make extra money. Truth is they are reimbursed the tax from the government two months after the sale.
Derrick at Pacfic Coast Auto is an exporter and on his youtube channel he goes into detail on how this "scam" works. An honest exporter will not charge you a sales tax as you are not legally liable for one as the car is being exported.
Shipping, depends on what port your close by to. It's cheaper to ship to the East Coast over the West coast as weird as that sounds.
It's little over a 1k to ship to Jacksonville Port in Florida. Other ports can be 2k or so.
The transportation fee's will depend on the exporter but typically it's wrapped into their service fee which is anywhere from 1k to 2k.
So worst case scenario,
7k for the car, 2k for the transportation/service fee, 2k for the shipping, and $175 custom fee.
Thats to get the car into the country. $11,175 dollars in the worst case scenario.
You also pay your local state tax on the price of the vehicle at auction as the sales tax just as you would when buying any car locally and registering it.
Is it worth it at that point?
You have to decide. California has crazy strict emissions laws too so it makes it more difficult to import.
10-12-17, 06:22 PM
#16
Unless we are talking about bottom feeder part cars, $5-7K does not buy you an export eligible FD, hasn't for years. You need to find a time machine if you want these prices, and if you don't buy now RHD will likely be completely priced out soon. (Unless USDM FD's see a serious price increase) JDM 13B 20B engines are now cheaper on EBAY in the US than they are here have been for a while, once again buy now if you ever are.
Not a guess, not speculation. Live and in person, in one capacity or another, personally sold 26 FD's in Japan last year. Only a couple went below $10,000. A really clean fully documented stock low mileage manual FD with no issues fetches $15K-$20K without blinking, $30K-$60K when we start talking about limited models like Spirit R.
The mileage has been documented on the title every 2 years at inspection time since the early 2000's. ODO tampering is no more of a problem here than it is in America at this very late stage in the game.
Not a guess, not speculation. Live and in person, in one capacity or another, personally sold 26 FD's in Japan last year. Only a couple went below $10,000. A really clean fully documented stock low mileage manual FD with no issues fetches $15K-$20K without blinking, $30K-$60K when we start talking about limited models like Spirit R.
The mileage has been documented on the title every 2 years at inspection time since the early 2000's. ODO tampering is no more of a problem here than it is in America at this very late stage in the game.
10-12-17, 08:09 PM
#17
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Unless we are talking about bottom feeder part cars, $5-7K does not buy you an export eligible FD, hasn't for years. You need to find a time machine if you want these prices, and if you don't buy now RHD will likely be completely priced out soon. (Unless USDM FD's see a serious price increase) JDM 13B 20B engines are now cheaper on EBAY in the US than they are here have been for a while, once again buy now if you ever are.
Not a guess, not speculation. Live and in person, in one capacity or another, personally sold 26 FD's in Japan last year. Only a couple went below $10,000. A really clean fully documented stock low mileage manual FD with no issues fetches $15K-$20K without blinking, $30K-$60K when we start talking about limited models like Spirit R.
The mileage has been documented on the title every 2 years at inspection time since the early 2000's. ODO tampering is no more of a problem here than it is in America at this very late stage in the game.
Not a guess, not speculation. Live and in person, in one capacity or another, personally sold 26 FD's in Japan last year. Only a couple went below $10,000. A really clean fully documented stock low mileage manual FD with no issues fetches $15K-$20K without blinking, $30K-$60K when we start talking about limited models like Spirit R.
The mileage has been documented on the title every 2 years at inspection time since the early 2000's. ODO tampering is no more of a problem here than it is in America at this very late stage in the game.
The same thing is happening with US cars. I suspect next year it will be super hard to find a good FD for under 20k. Low mileage cars will be 30k plus. Rare low mileage FDs (CW, r1, r2, bb or ssm base etc...) will be 35k plus.
Now is the best time to buy and that statement won't change for a while. The prices are rising faster than sellers can raise them LOL.
10-15-17, 12:45 PM
#19
I just got home from Canada. Bought a FD and drove it 1,300 miles back to Florida.
10-15-17, 09:21 PM
#21
Parts Galore
Ebay has been flooded this week with lots of parts from two apparent new part-outs of RHD. One seller seems to be in the US and is breaking down an RHD into small denominations (i.e. heater control actuators, etc.) . He/she does not seem to be even cleaning the parts. The OMP pictured is covered in about 3/8s inch of grime.
The other guy is an experienced parts seller in BC. He's listed about four pages of parts at what I would call "ebay max" pricing. He seems quick to discount though and will combine purchases for shipping savings.
The other guy is an experienced parts seller in BC. He's listed about four pages of parts at what I would call "ebay max" pricing. He seems quick to discount though and will combine purchases for shipping savings.